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MARCH 17,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

THE SHOW-ME STATE:  The margin was razor-thin, but Hillary Clinton has won the Missouri primary, held Tuesday.  From The Hill:   The AP called the race for Clinton at 6:06 p.m., two days after the Tuesday primary.  Sanders conceded on Thursday and said he will not seek a recount in the Show Me State, according to the AP.  So far, according to the AP’s delegate tracker, Clinton has been awarded 44 of the 84 total delegates, while Sanders has received 32.  The race was too close to call on Tuesday night, with Clinton leading Sanders by 0.2 percent. The two were separated by about 1,500 votes.  The Missouri Republican primary has yet to be called.  Unless the FBI investigation destroys her, it's hard to see how Clinton can be denied the nomination.  Her backers aren't very enthusiastic, while Bernie's are passionate, but what counts in the end are numbers, and Bernie's just aren't there.  On the other hand, some pundits are saying that Bernie, and his socialism, are the future of the Democratic Party because young people are so heavily in favor of the Bern.  I wouldn't count on it.  Young people occasionally grow up, and when they do they usually move right.

THERE SHE IS, NOT EXACTLY MISS AMERICA – From the New York Post:   She’s got her dedushka’s eyes — but this gun-toting, punk-rocking gal is as American as apple pie, although she does loves to cook borscht.  Tattooed Chrese Evans, 44, of Portland, Ore. — a Buddhist who runs an antique shop — is far removed from her notorious grandfather, Joseph Stalin, the former Soviet Union’s ruthless “man of steel.”  Svetlana Alliluyeva, Stalin’s only daughter, defected from the Soviet Union in 1966 and married Evans's future father, architect William Wesley Peters.  “Stalin for me was one of the three people who won the Second World War — Churchill, Roosevelt and him,” she told the Express of the UK. “Then my mother asked me to listen to her. This is when I found out about his crimes.”  I wish she'd go on a speaking tour and explain Communism to the dummies in our universities, but they probably wouldn't invite her.  You know, privileged white girl.

SIGN OF THE TIMES – From Reuters:   WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Law enforcement officers in the United States are increasingly buying professional liability insurance policies amid worries they may be sued for their on-duty actions, the Fraternal Order of Police, the biggest U.S. police union, told Reuters.  Between July 2014 and July 2015, the number of members who bought the union's liability insurance jumped 15 percent, according to data from the FOP released this week and shared exclusively with Reuters.  In previous years, liability insurance purchases grew only between one to three percent, said Jim Pasco, executive director of the FOP, which represents more than 330,000 officers.  The insurance would help cover legal fees, but would not protect against criminal prosecution.  Can't blame the officers.  I think the premiums should be paid for by city and state governments. 

PASSING – This will have meaning for those of a certain age.  Gogi Grant, who became famous in the 1950s for singing one song, "The Wayward Wind," has died at 91.  From The New York Times:   Gogi Grant, whose rendition of “The Wayward Wind” replaced Elvis Presley’s “Heartbreak Hotel” on top of the Billboard singles chart in 1956, died on Thursday at her home in Los Angeles. She was 91.  Her death was announced by her family....Ms. Grant recorded “The Wayward Wind,” a ballad about a woman yearning for her wandering beloved, as an afterthought in the final minutes of a long recording session devoted to the single “Who Are We.” Herb Newman, the owner of the Era label, gave Ms. Grant the song, which he had written with a college classmate, Stan Lebowsky.  There are a number of great stories of neglected songs, seen almost as throwaways, that became enduring hits.  "The Tennessee Waltz" is the most famous, recorded by Patti Page as the B-side of a single.  The A-side was a Christmas novelty song that went nowhere.  The B-side, "The Tennessee Waltz," became immortal.  Gogi Grant was famous essentially for one song, but it, too, with her artistry, has endured.   

March 17,  2016     Permalink

MEANWHILE, IN THE REAL WORLD, PEOPLE ARE COUGHING – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  They're supposed to have Obamacare, but a lot of people are bailing on Obama's signature program.  From IBD: 

President Obama described ObamaCare as a great product. So why did one in four of those who signed up in 2015 cancel their plans?

An official report released last Friday said that enrollment in the ObamaCare exchanges fell to 8.8 million by the end of the year, from 11.7 million who’d initially signed up. That’s a 25% decline.

About 1.5 million who signed up never paid their first premium, so the number of actual enrollees dropped to 10.2 million by the end of March 2015. Then another 1.1 million canceled their coverage in the last six months of the year, according to an analysis by the Mercatus Center‘s Brian Blase. Half a million got booted off because they couldn’t verify citizenship or immigration status.

There’s been no solid research to why so many canceled their ObamaCare plans before the year was out, but it’s not hard to make educated guesses.

For many, ObamaCare just isn’t worth it, even for many of the 84% who get insurance subsidies. The plans typically feature sky-high deductibles. As the New York Times reported, even if the coverage is cheap, that’s leaving “some newly insured feeling nearly as vulnerable as they were before they had coverage.” Why bother paying even heavily subsidized premiums?

There’s also a built-in incentive to cancel plans before the year is out because of ObamaCare’s 90-day grace period, which lets people getting subsidies keep coverage for three months if they stop paying premiums. Plus, the mandate tax penalty only kicks in for those who’ve been without insurance for three months or more. ObamaCare guarantees they can get their coverage back the next year — without making good on their unpaid premiums.

Then there are those who’ve learned to game the system — buying insurance midyear when they have big health care expenses, and then dropping it once the bills are paid. (The administration is trying to crack down on this.)

Presumably some drop ObamaCare plans because they get better coverage somewhere else. Still, since the healthier are more likely to drop out, the ObamaCare risk pool gets sicker, which will add upward pressure on premiums.

COMMENT:  Not quite as quick and easy as Obama made it sound.  And I'd like to see any statistics, which are sure to come, on the impact Obamacare is having on patient health. 

What Americans like is choice.  A selection.  I don't think they're seeing it with Obamacare.  But Republicans can't just whine about the program's failures.  They have to come up with something better themselves, and they really haven't.  As Obamacare deteriorates, the political left will claim that it never went far enough, that only a government-run, single-payer system will work.  You know, like those European paradises.  In the absence of a coherent Republican plan, the country may actually go in that direction.

March 17, 2016       Permalink 

LET THE SCHEMING BEGIN – AT 9:09 A.M. ET:   The reality of Trump, whether we like him or not, is starting to take hold at the Republican National Committee.  From the Washington Times:

Top Republicans will try to force more transparency at the party’s national convention in July, aiming to scrap their 1,500-page rule book in favor of simpler procedures that they hope will head off arcane maneuvers designed to deny Donald Trump the presidential nomination.

The changes wouldn’t guarantee Mr. Trump the nod but would make it easier for all sides to see what sorts of changes anti-Trump factions are attempting.

Some members of the Republican National Committee want to ditch the massive rule book, which is based on the parliamentary handbook of the U.S. House, and instead use Robert’s Rules of Order to govern floor action at the convention. Robert’s is the standard manual used by entities such as civic associations, county boards and state legislatures.

Those pushing the change are not Trump partisans, but they want to make it hard to forge in secrecy what voters might see as backroom deals to “steal” the presidential nomination from Mr. Trump, the front-runner.

“To make this convention more transparent, I will advocate, at the RNC Standing Rules committee meeting in April, adoption of Robert’s Rules of Order to replace the 1,500-page U.S. House rules to govern the convention,” Oregon RNC member Solomon Yue told The Washington Times on Wednesday.

COMMENT:  I really don't know if Robert's will be any better than the current rules, but at least the party is starting to be concerned about public perception.  Now, if Trump would adopt some measures to make himself more presidential, and bring any thuggish elements around him into line, some progress could be made.  This will not be an easy presidential election for the GOP.  And the future of Senate control is at stake as well.

March 17, 2016       Permalink

ABOUT TIME – AT 8:57 A.M. ET:  Finally, our mighty Department of State is prepared to use the G-word in connection with ISIS.  From Fox: 

Secretary of State John Kerry has determined that the Islamic State group is committing genocide against Christians and other minorities in Iraq and Syria, according to U.S. officials, as he acted to meet a congressional deadline.

But Kerry's finding, set to be announced Thursday, will not obligate the United States to take additional action against ISIS militants and does not prejudge any prosecution against its members, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly preview Kerry's decision.

A day after the State Department said Kerry would miss the March 17 deadline, the officials said Kerry had completed his review and determined that Christians, Yazidis and Shiite groups are victims of genocide. The House this week passed a nonbinding resolution by a 393-0 vote condemning IS atrocities as genocide.

Lawmakers and others who have advocated for the finding had sharply criticized the department's disclosure Wednesday that deadline would be missed. The officials said Kerry concluded his review just hours after that announcement and that the criticism had not affected his decision.

COMMENT:  So, let's see.  Kerry misses a deadline for finding ISIS is committing genocide against Christians and others.  He gets criticized for missing said deadline.  And the very next day, the day of the deadline, he will announce his suddenly available "finding."

You get the feeling that Grand Admiral Kerry isn't too serious about genocide?  Yeah, I get that uneasy feeling.  Why get people upset? 

Seems to me it's time for religious organizations in the United States to start to scream.

March 17,  2016     Permalink

MARCH 16,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

LIKE A STONE WALL – Thus far Senate Republicans are sticking to their pledge not to bring up the president's nomination of Judge Merrick Garland, preferring to wait until a new president is elected.  It's highly unlikely that a Republican president would renominate Garland, and Hillary Clinton would probably be pressured by her base to choose someone much more liberal.  So, far now, the Garland nomination is going nowhere.  However, I would not be shocked if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell changed his mind within a month or so, as Republicans start to reason that Garland, a deeply respected judge, may be the best they'll ever do.  As one commentator said, in normal times Garland would easily be confirmed.  These are strange times.

SAD – Frank Sinatra Jr. has died suddenly at 72.  He never reached the heights his father did, but he was a competent singer, with a fine voice, who built a musical career of his own.  Had he come along earlier, in the golden age of American popular music, sometimes called the Great American songbook, he probably would have been more successful and better known, and even had his own band.  We don't have many traditional "saloon singers" left, but the great songs of the golden age endure for many of us.

TRUMP TRUMPS CRUZ – From Fox:  Fox News has canceled its March 21 Republican presidential debate following Donald Trump's decision not to attend, three sources told CNNMoney on Wednesday.
Dan Hayes, the general manager of the Salt Palace Convention Center, which was scheduled to host the debate, said he had "received verbal statements from Fox News" that the debate would no longer be taking place.  Two Fox News sources familiar with the decision confirmed the debate had been canceled.  Trump thus denies to Ted Cruz what Cruz dearly wanted – a one-on-one debate, with John Kasich kind of standing there.  It was Cruz's chance to confront Trump.  Now that chance is gone, and the Cruz campaign will have to run a standard campaign.  I think it's very iffy.  Trump's move in pulling out of the Fox debate proved to be shrewd. 

WELL, THAT THREAT HAS EASED – From People:  Once Michelle Obama leaves the White House next year, she won't be looking back.  After delivering a keynote speech promoting education for girls around the world at South by Southwest on Wednesday, the First Lady said in a panel moderated by Queen Latifah that she "will not run for president."  Obama cited her daughters, Sasha and Malia, as one reason.  "I have these two young people at home. Being the daughters of a president, just think about it. Not so easy. They handled it with grace and poise."   If only their father had such grace and poise.  But I'm relieved that Michelle isn't running.  I don't know if I could take those forced morning exercises on CNN, or the healthy breakfasts.  Some things are just dreadful.

March 16,  2016     Permalink

BULLETIN – AT 10:06 A.M. ET:  Both Fox and CNN are reporting that Merrick Garland, chief judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, will be nominated by President Obama at 11 a.m. to replace Antonin Scalia on the U.S. Supreme Court.

A bit of a surprise.  Although Garland has been on Obama's short list, as we noted earlier today, he is 63 and a white male.   It's unusual for a Supreme Court nominee to be that old, as presidents see their Court appointments as part of their legacy, and want that legacy to go on as long as possible.   True, Garland is chief judge of the most prestigious federal judicial circuit, but that doesn't change his age.

Also, it was widely expected that Obama would avoid naming a white male.  Sri Srinivasan, another candidate on the short list, would have been the first Asian American nominated to the Court.

The apparent Republican strategy, from late reports, will be to concede Garland's qualifications, but still refuse to consider him, on procedural grounds.  Republicans will insist that no nomination should be weighed this close to a presidential election.

We must also add that Garland has a history of antagonism toward the rights of gun owners, something that will play heavily in a Republican Senate.  It may be the disqualifier.

I suspect that Garland's nomination will languish this year.  Should Hillary be elected, she could renominate him, but it's more likely she'd want her own, clear choice.  In addition, Garland has no constituency.  He isn't a member of a demanding ethnic or sexual group.  He isn't a "first."  Who'll be shouting if his nomination fails?

March 16, 2016        Permalink

BIG MISTAKE – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:   The question is whether Donald Trump, heading toward a probable nomination for the presidency, will begin to act like a president.  The first sign is disappointing.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump confirmed Wednesday that he would not be attending the last GOP debate on Monday in Utah, citing a prior commitment to speak before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference that day.

Trump made the news official during an appearance on "Fox and Friends," telling host Steve Doocy that he would not be there on Monday, and adding that "we've had enough debates."

"Mr. Trump, are you going to be at the Fox News debate on March 21st?" Doocy asked Trump.

"You know, I'll be honest, nobody even told me about it," Trump said. "Nobody told me about the debates, and as you saw, the last debate on CNN was the last debate. That was going to be it."

COMMENT:  Major blunder.  There's an old political saying about dealing with the print press:  "Don't start up with people who buy ink by the barrel."  Well, in the TV age, don't needlessly start up with Fox News.

I mean, come on.  The AIPAC speech could easily be rescheduled.  AIPAC's national meetings take place over several days.  And this scheduling conflict certainly was known days ago.  Why did Trump wait until last night's victories to pull out of the debate?  It looks arrogant, reinforcing an unfortunate part of Trump's reputation.  He hasn't won the nomination yet.  He's close, but the cigars haven't been distributed.  He owes the Republican Party a debate with only three men on stage – Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.  Is Trump afraid? 

Now the ball is in Fox's court.  Does the company cancel the debate, or go on with it, with an empty chair substituting for Trump?   Trump's withdrawal could lead to a Cruz-Kasich "discussion," with both of them getting vast, free publicity.  It may be the thing that could change the Republican race. 

Not a good move on Trump's part.  Reconsider, sir.

March 16, 2016       Permalink

TODAY – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  President Obama will, at 11 a.m., reveal his pick for a justice to succeed  the late Antonin Scalia on the United States Supreme Court.

Any choice would have to be confirmed by the Senate.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already said that he will not allow an Obama selection to be considered.  McConnell, and most Republicans, want the choice to be made by the president elected in November.  We'll see if McConnell's strategy is maintained, or abandoned.

If Hillary Clinton is elected, her choice could be just as bad as Obama's, or worse, especially if the Senate flips, and the new Senate sworn in January of next year, is Democratic.  Ditto with Donald Trump.  He will march to his own drummer, and could easily appoint a Democrat, or one of his family's lawyers. 

According to press reports, the president has narrowed his choices to two men.  From Reuters:

He is likely to announce one of two federal appeals court judges, Sri Srinivasan or Merrick Garland, as his choice, a source familiar with the selection process told Reuters.

The Indian-born Srinivasan, 49, would be the first Asian-American and first Hindu Supreme Court justice. Garland, 63, is a long-time appellate judge and former prosecutor who Obama also considered when he filled two previous Supreme Court vacancies.

Obama has been searching for a replacement for long-serving conservative Justice Antonin Scalia, who died on Feb. 13.

"I’m confident you’ll share my conviction that this American is not only eminently qualified to be a Supreme Court Justice, but deserves a fair hearing, and an up-or-down vote," Obama said in the statement ahead of his scheduled announcement in the White House Rose Garden.

A third judge has also been mentioned, Paul Watford, of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in California.  Both Srinivasan and Garland are considered moderate liberals, with Srinivasan the more moderate.  He was confirmed unanimously for his present position as an appeals court judge.  Given that record, it would be hard for McConnell to refuse to consider him.

However, I'd be careful about predictions.  Sometimes names are leaked by the White House to throw the press off, allowing a president to drop a surprise.  We'll see at 11 a.m.  We'll see whether Obama's pick is serious, or simply a sacrificial lamb to provoke McConnell into refusing to act, and thus inflaming some favored part of the Democratic constituency.

March 16,  2016     Permalink